Thanks for the comment- I’ve actually been thinking about this stuff a lot lately. I think the questions of “whose future” is really wide open right now… the only specific prediction I feel I can make is that we’ll probably go through a pretty crazy time as 1. society gets used to these technologies and figures out how (and if) to integrate each of them into day-to-day life, and 2. certain people/groups/nations/etc make power plays for control of certain technologies.

I hope the good guys win, whomever they are. That’s about where I’m at now. :) Maybe as things progress we’ll get a better idea of who the major actors will be in the jockeying-for-position that will probably happen with this stuff.

Finally read your review on this, though it’s been what, about a year and a half since you posted it? Just curious if you’ve had any further thoughts on the matter since then, particularly the “whose” question. My local library has the book, so I may hunt it down for reading during thanksgiving.

Perhaps more soon.

-Jason

All of what you say is true– basically, technological growth depends on the economy, and if there were a major economic shakeup, that might have major implications. Kurzweil argues that we’ve seen consistent growth throughout the 20th century, even through the great depression (even speeding up during WWII), so I think he’d say there’d have to be a really *big* economic shakeup for it to really influence technological growth. I think Kurzweil is fairly convincing in this. But a huge shakeup is certainly (increasingly?) possible.

Whose future– huge, troubling issue. One which Kurzweil definitely does not sufficiently handle. I try to sketch out a few ideas on that here though it’s not really ‘singularity’ oriented.

Cheers,
Mike

One factor worth considering in any ambitious attempt to project “the” future is the seemingly inevitable instability of economic growth. Obviously, a society that is suddenly ravaged by war or depression will be thrown off the track. On the micro level: So many bright young people have great 10-year plans, then the parents go bankrupt, or the government funding becomes less generous, or the person’s business fails, etc.

A second factor to ponder in any attempt to predict “the” future is what my scare quotes are referring to: namely, the question -whose- future? Only a relatively small elite is able to afford high technology. The vast majority of Chinese peasants don’t (and probably won’t) have Wi-fi, for example.

So in all these projections of Man becoming Superman through extraordinary tech, we’re talking about a small elite of people depending on a large (even global) industrial economy that is remarkably stabile and robust: a thing so historically rare as to be a science-fiction prediction in itself.

If improvement continues, we will progress to levels beyond what we currently imagine – this is static prediction at best, and tautology at worst.

I feel somewhat confident that I will have lunch now. That much I can say. :)

Again, great blog. Don’t stop.