Comments on: Inflation, briefly. https://archive.opentheory.net/2012/02/inflation-briefly/ Speculations on the Frontiers of Science and Culture Mon, 11 Mar 2013 19:48:32 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0 By: What rich people are worrying about | Opentheory.net https://archive.opentheory.net/2012/02/inflation-briefly/#comment-1277 Wed, 11 Apr 2012 20:11:39 +0000 https://archive.opentheory.net/?p=644#comment-1277 […] your cash in your mattress” strategy isn’t very good when governments can simply inflate away its value. In other words, if you’re worried about finding a relatively disaster-proof way […]

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By: On OWS, fairness, and why we’re all screwed | Opentheory.net https://archive.opentheory.net/2012/02/inflation-briefly/#comment-1276 Wed, 11 Apr 2012 20:00:55 +0000 https://archive.opentheory.net/?p=644#comment-1276 […] 4-11-12: A friend has an interesting point on my Inflation, briefly […]

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By: MJ https://archive.opentheory.net/2012/02/inflation-briefly/#comment-1275 Wed, 11 Apr 2012 19:52:17 +0000 https://archive.opentheory.net/?p=644#comment-1275 Some excellent points here. I agree with (1), (3), and especially (4). If I’m right, (4) is very difficult to argue against, at some levels.

On (5), I think it depends on how we define wealth, and just how limited inflation can be, if it’s happening. I.e., if you own a good inflation hedge, I think you can *prevent* your wealth from being destroyed, but I don’t think it improves your Net Worth in a real sense. I may be wrong.

I also had to chuckle at one of @gselevator‘s recent comments-

“Inflation figures that don’t include food and energy are like not counting beer as drinking.”

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By: Dan Frasier https://archive.opentheory.net/2012/02/inflation-briefly/#comment-892 Sat, 11 Feb 2012 18:32:50 +0000 https://archive.opentheory.net/?p=644#comment-892 You hit the nail on the head here and I think there are a few more implications that you might be missing. I will briefly outline them here.

1. Deflation is scary because out debt payments tend toward fixed. That is to say, when your wages fall (as a result of deflation) you are ok if the price of everything you buy also falls, but if you have fixed debt payments you go bust. That’s the real peril of deflation, ofter referred to a a deflationary debt spiral. The relative leverage of different stratas of society and whether they were experiencing deflation or inflation would explain mass bankruptcies and defaults by certain segments of the population and not others. It may be that the over-leveraged subprime sectors of the economy are experiencing a deflation (based on their prior tendency to use their average dollar to purchase homes, which are falling in price) that may help explain the segmented bankruptcy experience we are seeing.

2. I know how to measure inflation in the way you want. Get ahold of me to discuss if you would like.

3. The Fed will often try to “inflate our way out” of debt problems. As i discussed before, deflation HURTS if you have fixed rate leverage, and in the same vein inflation will save you. That said, if the new money creation.. ie. the inflation.. is being confined to only those segments of the population not burdened with over-leverage, then inflating our way out of the situation will invariably fail.

4. Our understanding of the expanding wage and wealth gap my very well be flawed. There may NOT be a gap being created or expanding, like the statistics show. If, for a sustained period of time, there are differential inflation rates for the different income segments of the population, then there can be differing wage or wealth growth without there being a gap in REAL wages or Wealth being created.

5. There is one problem with including investments in the inflation rate. That is that while their price rising, eroding you CURRENT purchasing power of a dollar, you are actually becoming more wealthy in terms of your overall Net Worth. In essence you can sell you stocks and buy ALOT of things that haven’t experienced the same price increases. Not sure how that all fits in, but it might.

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